Right now, there’s real room to negotiate in the Dubai property market. But that opportunity won’t be around forever.
Lately, I’ve been getting the same questions day in, day out:
“Are deals still happening?”
“What’s the market actually doing?”
“Should I be buying or selling right now?”
And more recently: “I’ve bought off-plan — what now?”
Instead of answering individually, I thought I’d bring everything together here.
Whether you’re buying, selling, or just watching from the sidelines, this is my honest view of where things stand at the end of March.
Everything below is based on real-time internal insights — reflecting what buyers and sellers are actually doing today.
Starting With the Data
Each week we track three key metrics: viewings, new listings, and buyer registrations. Here’s how things have played out:
Viewings
- Down 71% in the week of March 2
- Improved to -47% by March 9
- Dropped again during Eid week (March 16 — expected)
- Rebounded strongly by 59% in the week of March 23
New Listings
- Fell 27% in early March
- By March 23, fully recovered and now sitting 10% above pre-conflict levels
Buyer Registrations
- Down 64% at the lowest point
- Now recovering — sitting at -46% by the end of March and improving weekly
The key takeaway? Viewings bounced back quickly despite both geopolitical uncertainty and Eid. That says a lot about underlying confidence.
Where Are Buyers Negotiating the Most?
Before diving into numbers, one important point: these figures compare asking prices to agreed sale prices — not historical transaction data. This shows how much sellers are willing to move to secure a deal right now.
The biggest flexibility is in apartments — particularly in Marina, JBR, and Downtown.
Recent examples:
- Dubai Marina — AED 1.55M → AED 1.1M (-29%)
- Dubai Marina — AED 3.15M → AED 2.63M (-16.5%)
- JBR — AED 2.35M → AED 2.0M (-14.9%)
- Downtown — AED 1.7M → AED 1.475M (-13.2%)
If you’ve been watching these areas, this is a rare window to negotiate.
Villas, however, tell a slightly different story:
- Jumeirah Golf Estates — AED 39M → AED 35M (-10.3%)
- Victory Heights — AED 14.5M → AED 12.4M (-14.5%)
- Meadows — AED 12.75M → AED 11.5M (-9.8%)
- JGE (super prime) — AED 49M → AED 49M (no movement)
That last deal says a lot — ultra-prime sellers aren’t under pressure. How long that holds is another question.
A True Buyer’s Market
For the first time in years, Dubai is firmly in buyer territory.
In practical terms, sellers who want to move are pricing around 10% below recent comparable sales — what I’d call a “conflict discount.”
In my view, the moment there’s a ceasefire or political resolution, those discounts will either disappear overnight or stop widening immediately. Either way, the opportunity closes — especially for ready properties.
For buyers, this is a genuine opening.
There are a lot of people now in a position where they can stretch further than they could before. Buyers who were previously priced out of certain communities are reassessing — especially where the right discount exists. The market is creating opportunities for those paying close attention.
Not All Sellers Are Equal
Right now, sellers fall into two clear groups:
- Ultra-high-net-worth sellers
No pressure, no urgency. They’re not adjusting prices and are prepared to wait. - Motivated sellers
These are individuals facing income pressure, business challenges, or multiple off-plan commitments. Many are looking to sell one asset to protect others.
For this second group, ready properties are the most attractive. Buyers want certainty — something tangible, something they can move into — not a future handover.
If you’re an agent, the key question is simple: how motivated is your seller?
If you’re a seller, it’s even more important: do you hold, or do you de-risk?
There’s no right or wrong answer — but clarity matters.
The Economic Reality
Across sectors — F&B, hospitality, retail, entertainment, real estate — I’m hearing the same thing: revenues are down 60–70%.
That’s the reality during periods of conflict.
But it’s not uniform. It’s highly price and location dependent.
Primark is packed. Cheesecake Factory still has queues midweek. People are spending — just more selectively.
And that behaviour mirrors what we’re seeing in property:
People are still looking, still enquiring, still viewing — but they’re taking more time before making big decisions.
Who’s Actually Buying Right Now?
There are broadly two types of people in the market:
- Long-term residents
They’ve been here 10–15 years, built wealth, established businesses, and understand the cycles. They’re staying put and often transacting. - Newer arrivals (6–12 months)
Less rooted, less financially buffered. Some have left temporarily, though many will return.
Most transactions right now are driven by the first group.
Personally, I hold both off-plan and ready properties. None are for sale. Payment plans continue, rental income continues. Some short-term value fluctuation is expected — and I’m comfortable with that because I know how this market behaves over time.
What Happens Next?
If this feels familiar, it should.
Think back to lockdown — it dominated everything, until suddenly it didn’t.
I expect a similar shift here.
When momentum returns — through travel, tourism, and confidence — it will start with pricing.
Airlines will release aggressive offers. Hotels will drop rates. Demand will return quickly.
Ask anyone in the UK:
“If you could stay in a five-star Dubai hotel for £100 a night, would you go?”
The answer is always yes.
Everything is price-driven. Demand follows value — then prices follow demand.
That applies across the board: hospitality, travel, and real estate.
Final Thought
If you’re looking for a deal — whether it’s a hotel, a flight, or a property — this is the moment.
Because just like the good times don’t last forever, neither do the slower ones.
And over time, it’s always the long-term investors — those with patience and perspective — who come out ahead.
If you have any questions about the Dubai property market, feel free to reach out via oh-property.com — always happy to help.